Deutsche Bank warns of downside risk on Tesla

Deutsche Bank hosted investor meetings with Tesla (NASDAQ:) as part of the IAA Cars Conf. In the very near term, we came away with the sense there could be downside risk to investors’ expectations for volume and margin in Q3, reflecting planned summer production shutdowns which will push both production and deliveries down QoQ, discounts on inventories, and limited positive costs offsets in the quarter.

Deutsche Bank recently hosted investor meetings with Tesla as part of the IAA Cars Conference. Based on discussions, it appears that there might be potential drawbacks to investors’ Q3 forecasts, given the scheduled summer production pauses that will likely result in a decline in both production and deliveries compared to the previous quarter.

Additionally, the need to offer discounts on inventory and the absence of substantial cost offsets in this quarter could contribute to these downside risks.

“The bulk of raw materials tailwind was indeed recognized in Q2, leaving modest additional benefit for Q3, and since larger cost improvements in Berlin/Austin factories are expected to come with volume stabilization post ramp up, they may not reach optimal level until 2024,” write the analysts.

Looking beyond the current quarter, Tesla indicated that its updated Model 3 could experience strong demand. This is attributed to the anticipated lower cost of goods sold and a higher selling price compared to the previous model, potentially contributing to improved profitability.

Shares of TSLA are down 0.30% in afternoon trading Thursday.