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South Africa’s African National Congress is weighing a deal with two centrist parties, the Democratic Alliance and Inkatha Freedom party, to ensure “stability in government”, according to an internal draft discussion document obtained by the Financial Times.
The text, written by a senior ANC official with credibility among party members, states that the ANC “should not consider” an alliance with either the radical Economic Freedom Fighters or former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, whose strong performance in last week’s national vote has shaken up South Africa’s electoral mathematics. The EFF wants to nationalise the vital mining sector while Zuma has called for a rewriting of South Africa’s post-apartheid constitution.
The discussion over coalition partners follows the shock election in which the ANC, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, lost its majority for the first time since the end of apartheid.
The 10-page document, titled “Pathways to a viable government after the 2024 elections”, describes the EFF and MK as “rent-seeking parties” that are not “viable candidates for a coalition agreement”. To join forces with them risked “alienating large numbers of voters who view them as corrupt”, the text states.
The “preferred option”, according to the document, would be a “confidence and supply agreement” with the DA and IFP, in which neither party would be given portfolios. They would agree to back the ANC on key votes, including the budget. The second-best option would be a formal coalition with those two parties and the third a “government of national unity” with all the groups in parliament.
Rival ANC documents have proposed different possibilities, suggesting deep splits within the party over the way forward. Its main decision-making body, the National Executive Committee, will meet on Wednesday to discuss the options. Parliament must convene to elect a president within two weeks of the vote being declared.
Some NEC members consider any deal with the DA as unpalatable. The Daily Maverick, a South African publication, has obtained a separate ANC discussion paper which favours an alliance with the EFF and the rightwing Patriotic Alliance. Other coalition deals are discussed in this document but a pact with the DA is not.
“It’s too early to say which way the ANC will go,” said Richard Calland, a political analyst and law professor. “There are various factions within its national executive all with different views, so it’s a battle for hearts and minds within the party now.”
Calland said many in the ANC would find it hard to swallow a deal with the DA. “There are significant ideological differences, but if the electorate hasn’t given you a majority, you have to share power to stay in power,” he said.
In the document obtained by the FT, the ANC refers to the DA as a party “dedicated to preserving the privileges of the white minority”, but says it has strong institutional mechanisms and “its values and platform are not antithetical to the constitution”.
John Steenhuisen, DA leader, said in an interview that his party would not join any coalition that jeopardised the constitution. The DA’s objective, he said, referring to the presidency building, “was to keep Zuma’s party and the EFF out of the union buildings”. His party, he added, “would not work with the EFF or MK because they represent the antithesis of our principles”.
Steenhuisen said the DA was open to the IFP and the Freedom Front Plus, which he described as representing the Afrikaner voice, inside any coalition. The DA was not angling for particular positions, he said, but would need something in return for its support.
“There are no good options,” he said of the prospect of working with the ANC. “There are least worst options and worst options.”
Velenkosini Hlabisa, leader of the IFP, also said his party would be guided by values and respect for the constitution in deciding its options. “We will have a problem if someone says, ‘we don’t need a constitution’,” he said in an interview, in what appeared to be a dig at Zuma’s MK.
Gayton McKenzie, a former prisoner whose Patriotic Alliance won 2 per cent of the vote, said he had been in gruelling coalition talks for two days.
“We’re speaking to everyone who wants to speak to us,” he said, adding that a meeting with Zuma had been postponed. He also said he expected coalition discussions to be largely completed by Thursday.
McKenzie described an ANC-DA coalition as “the biggest gift you could give to Jacob Zuma” and predicted half the ANC membership would quit the party and join MK in disgust. “This unintended consequence of that sort of forced marriage would make Zuma the most powerful person” in South Africa, he said.
The ANC document warned that any deal with the DA risked being seen by its supporters as “selling out”, so it would need to do lots of “political work” to get its members to accept it.
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